Filipe B. Caires

Filipe B. Caires

PhD Candidate in Economics

European Unversity Institute

Welcome!

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the European University Institute, in Florence, Italy. In my research, I apply microeconometric methods to study policy-relevant questions in labour, personnel, and public economics. I work under the supervision of Andrea Ichino and Thomas Crossley. I’m also a Research Affiliate at HEC Montréal and Università Bocconi.

During my PhD, I undertook research visits at HEC Montréal and the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan, and served as an economist at the Directorate for Employment, Labour, and Social Affairs at the OECD for half a year. I am a member of the LinkEED 2.0 research network and a Board Memeber of the European Association for Young Economists (EAYE).

I am on the 2025/26 Job Market. Read my Job Market Paper .

Academic References

Recent and Upcoming Talks:

Interests
  • Labour Economics
  • Public Economics
  • Causal Inference
Education
  • PhD in Economics, 2026 (Expected)

    European University Institute

  • MRes in Economics, 2021

    European University Institute

  • MSc in Economics, 2018

    Nova School of Business and Economics

  • BSc in Economics, 2016

    Nova School of Business and Economics

Research

My research lies at the intersection of labour, personnel, and public economics. Here, you can find information on my projects with complete drafts. To discuss work in progress, feel free to contact me at filipe.b.caires@eui.eu.

Job Market Paper

Best Paper Award · EAYE 2025
This paper provides empirical evidence that firms’ internal organization and pay-setting practices shape how minimum wage shocks propagate through the wage distribution. I analyze the effects of a binding minimum wage in a personnel economics model featuring two canonical compensation structures: rigid, job title based pay schedules and flexible, individualized pay. The same policy shock produces distinct spillover patterns depending on the firm’s compensation structure. Firms with rigid hierarchies preserve wage differentials by adjusting pay up the ladder, amplifying spillovers. Flexible systems, in contrast, limit such adjustments. Using linked employer–employee data from Portugal and two minimum wage hikes, I exploit variation in workers’ exposure and firms’ pay-setting practices to estimate spillover effects. These reach up to the median of the wage distribution and are driven primarily by firm responses rather than institutional constraints. Effects are about 30 percent larger in firms with rigid pay structures. The findings identify compensation practices as a key transmission channel through which minimum wage policy, and other shocks to relative pay, reshape the wage distribution.
Presented at (*scheduled): EUI; OECD; Sciences Po; HEC Montreal; McGill University; EAYE 2025; PEJ Meeting 2025; *EEA Congress 2025; *SAEe UABarcelona; *Econometric Society Winter Meetings, UCyprus

Working Papers

w/ Susana Peralta and Diogo Mendes
Abstract
This paper studies contract splitting - the act of splitting contracts into multiple smaller ones - as a mechanism of manipulation in public procurement. Leveraging the procurement administrative registry in Portugal and exploiting a reform that lowered discretion thresholds, we find that contract splitting is the main mechanism of manipulation. Buyers split to circumvent competitive requirements, more so for goods and services than for less divisible construction works. We discuss the implications of contract splitting for commonly used bunching estimators, documenting the existence of a splitting-induced bias.
Presented at: ISEG Lisbon Micro Group Lisbon; EUI; Utrecht USE Workshop on Lobbying and Political Influence; UniTo-CCA PhD Workshop in Economics
w/ Afonso C. Leme.
Abstract
Teen employment has fallen sharply across advanced economies, reducing firms’ access to a traditionally flexible and low-cost source of labour, yet little is known about how they adapt to this shift. This paper studies how firms and labour markets adjust to an exogenous contraction in teen labour supply, exploiting Portugal’s 2009 compulsory schooling reform, which raised the minimum school-leaving age to 18. Using matched employer–employee data covering all private-sector firms between 2002 and 2016, we construct local labour market exposure measures capturing both the intensity and persistence of pre-reform reliance on teen workers and estimate event-study models comparing more and less exposed units. The reform led to a sharp and lasting reduction in teen employment and on-the-job training. Firms compensated primarily by hiring slightly older workers, without upgrading skills or wages, suggesting adjustment along cost rather than productivity margins. Ongoing work explores implications for productivity, capital expenditures, and technology adoption.
Presented at (*scheduled): ISEG Lisbon Micro Group Lisbon; EUI; Aix-Marselle School of Economics; *LESE 2026, NovaSBE
Draft available upon request

Publications and Policy work

w/ Hugo Reis and Paulo M. M. Rodrigues. (Pre-PhD Work)
Abstract
This article estimates a discrete-time proportional hazards model to study firm survival in thte Portuguese Tourism sector. While tourism is among the most volatile sectors in times of uncertainty, tourism-associated firms are remarkably resilient.

Teaching

Download Teaching Evaluations (PDF)

Microeconomics III - Information Economics and Social Choice

PhD in Economics EUI · Spring 2024
TA to Andrea Mattozzi

Statistics and Econometrics II - Econometrics of Microdata

PhD in Economics EUI · Fall 2022
TA to Sule Alan and Tom Crossley

Microeconometrics

MSc in Economics CATOLICA-LISBON · Spring 2020
Grader to Pedro Raposo

Econometrics II

MSc in Economics CATOLICA-LISBON · Fall 2018 to Spring 2020
TA and Grader to Hugo Reis

Economics of Education

MSc in Economics CATOLICA-LISBON · Fall 2018 to Spring 2020
TA and Grader to Hugo Reis

Contact